外贸依存度测算方法的改进及对中国外贸依存度的重新估计

An Improved Method on Measuring the Ratio of Dependence on Foreign Trade and Discussions on China's RDFT

本文探讨了外贸依存度测算方法的改进问题,提出了以经济总活动代替传统公式中的GDP并考虑服务贸易的影响、运用加权平均及修正系数测算外贸依存度的方法,并以此新方法对中国的外贸依存度进行了重新估计。根据新方法测算的中国外贸依存度表明,中国外贸依存度是适中的,这为有关部门制定相关政策提供了依据。

This paper discusses the issue of improving the method of measuring the ratio of dependence on foreign trade （RDFT） . A new formula is put forward, in which GDP in the traditional formula is replaced by Total Economic Activity and the factor of trade in services is considered. In the new formula, the method of weighted average and adjustment coefficients are adopted. Using this new formula, we compute the RDFT of China in the recent two decades and find that China＇s RDFT has been moderate. This result will in turn provide good basis for drawing up relevant policies by China＇s governmental departments.