对蒙代尔—弗莱明模型的修正——中国经济增长对人民币汇率作用机制

A Revision About Mundell-Fleming Model

蒙代尔—弗莱明模型认为,经济增长会使一国经常账户恶化从而导致本国货币贬值,中国自1994年以来经济快速增长,而经常账户却是持续顺差,在利率不断下降条件下,资金大量流入,人民币汇率稳中有升,外汇储备大幅度增加,这些显然有悖于蒙代尔—弗莱明模型。本文认为,购买力平价理论更符合中国现实,并给出了购买力平价理论动态表述,然后对传统的汇率货币模型进行修正,进一步分析经济增长与汇率之间关系。最后本文对蒙代尔—弗莱明模型国际收支平衡线进行修正,并运用修正后的MF模型分析在开放经济条件下的财政政策与货币政策效果。

M-F Model thinks economic growth can worsen a country＇s current account and lead to the country currency depreciation. Since 1994 China economic has grown rapidly, the current account had a sustained increase. Moreover, under the situation that RMB interest rate dropped constantly, more and more capital flowed into China. China＇s foreign exchange reserve increases rapidly. These don＇t confirm to M-F model obviously. This paper firstly analyzes the dynamic Purchasing Power Parity （PPP） theory and thinks PPP theory accords with China. Then, this paper revises the traditional monetary model and further analyzes the relationship between economic growth and exchange rate. Finally, we revise the M-F model＇s BP line.