行为金融学视角中的中国居民储蓄

The Saving Behavior of the Chinese Residents Explained by Behavioral Finance

2004年起我国居民储蓄存款的增速下降,运用行为金融学分析可知:这正是居民在外部条件变化时进行最佳资产配置的结果。研究表明:居民对实际利率变化比较敏感,在实际利率为正或为负时,敏感性显著不同。过度自信使居民对当月实际利率变化反映过度或反映不足。随着改革的推进,人类理性行为的外部约束条件将改善,居民储蓄的利率弹性将提高,储蓄行为会趋于理性化。

The growth rate of saving deposits owned by Chinese residents has slowed down since 2004. Applying behavioral finance to this phenomenon, we can see that it is just the result of optimal asset allocation by Chinese residents faced with changes of external conditions. Research shows that residents are sensitive to real interest rate changes and the sensitivity is distinctly different when real interest rate is positive from when it is negative. Over-confidence leads to different reaction to real interest rate changes of that month. With deepening of economic reform, the external conditions that restrict human rationality will improve, the interest elasticity of saving deposits will increase, and the saving behavior will tend to be more rational.