三峡永久船闸边坡17-17断面变形分析

Deformation Analysis on Slopes of Three Gorges Project Permanent Lock at Section 17-17

三峡永久船闸南北两侧高边坡是否稳定,一直是国内外关注的重要问题。为了解高边坡现状及未来发展趋势,选择了边坡最高、地质条件复杂的17-17关键断面进行变形分析研究。采用的方法:①对高边坡观测成果序列进行分析,找出其变化特点及规律;②对当前高边坡监测值与FLAC计算结果进行比较,判断二者变形结果是否趋于一致;③建立北坡、南坡统计模型,对当前到2035年期间时效位移年均增量作预测。通过①、②两种方法研究,认为当前边坡处于稳定状态;通过③种方法研究,预测的时效增量很小,而且随着时间的推移年均增量还在逐步变小,认为边坡时效变形是稳定的。

The stability of north and south slopes of the Three Gorges Project（TGP） permanent lock is very important to ensure salty operation of the lock. The problem has been paid close attention to by the domestic and foreign experts for a long time. For studying this problem, the authors chose the section 17-17 as a reseach section, which is one of the highest and the most complicated sections in geomorphologic and geologic conditions. Study procedures are： ① to analyze field observed results to find the change features and regularity of the slope;② to compare the observed data with the computed results from FLAC program;③to establish two statistical models of north and south slopes so as to forecast the annually avervage increment of time-effect from now to 2035. The research results show that, the slope is in stable, the predicted increment of time-effect is very small, and the annually average increment will become small and small with time going-on. So the deformation of time-effect in slopes is considered to be stable.