货币供应量作为我国货币政策中介目标的有效性分析

A Study on the Validity of Money Supply as the Middle Target of Our Monetary Policies

通过运用向量自回归(VAR)模型、脉冲响应函数(IRF)、方差分解分析等经济计量方法,本文对我国现行货币政策中介目标进行了实证分析并得出结论:货币供应量作为中介目标的有效性正不断降低,实际利率作为中介目标的实施效果好于货币供应量。本文认为,基础货币难以控制、货币乘数不稳定、货币流通速度不断下降和货币政策传导机制不完善等因素是产生上述实证结论的重要原因。最后,本文提出了相关建议。

This paper makes an empirical study on the validity of money supply as the middle target of our monetary policies by using VAR, IRF and other empirical models. It points out that the effectiveness of taking money supply as the middle target is reducing, while the effectiveness of taking actual interest rate as the middle target is better. The paper believes that the main reasons consists in uncontrollable basic monetary, volatile monetary multiplier, degressive monetary circulation speed and incomplete monetary policy conduction system. At last, we give some suggestions on this issue,