房地产价格不确定性对土地交易效率的影响分析

An analysis of effects of uncertainty in real estates price on efficiency of land transaction

文章建立了房地产开发商在土地交易中的基本报价模型,并通过对该模型的研究认为,房地产市场价格的不确定性会影响投标者对土地价值的估计,相应地影响投标者的报价行为。通过对不同效率的开发商分别以高报价和低报价中标的三种情形的分析认为,当将来房地产市场的价格水平或者其开发成本水平存在较大程度的不确定性时,市场交易机制有可能会失灵,形成所谓的“赢者诅咒”或者“输者诅咒”现象,从而降低土地交易机制的效率。为进一步有效地发挥市场机制在土地配置中的作用,建议应该维护房地产市场价格的稳定和可预期性,并针对房地产市场的价格变化情况考虑采取不同的土地交易机制。

A price model is set up in this paper for real estate developers to bid in land transaction. The price uncertainty in real estate market can affect bidders＇evaluation on land value, then the bidders＇ behaviors and the efficiency of land transaction. Three situations are analyzed about developers of different efficiency winning the bidding with high price or low price. When there exists great uncertainty in future price or development level in real estate market, market transaction mechanism may fail and lead to ＂winners＇ curse＂ or ＂losers＇ curse＂ and therefore reduce the efficiency of bidding and auction mechanism. In order to bring the market into play in land allocation, it＇ s proposed to maintain the stabilization and anticipatable of real estate market price and take different land transaction mechanism according to the price change in real estate market.