预期的性质、特征及其对经济运行的影响

EXPECTATION'S QUALITY,FEATURES AND ITS EFFECTS ON ECONOMIC MOTION

预期是指经济当事人或经济行为人对经济变量在未来的变动方向和变动幅度的一种事前估计,在性质上有好、坏之分。它既不同于日常的经济活动,又不同于一般的心理行为。预期具有主观性、动态性、时效性等特征。预期对经济运行的影响像一把双刃剑,积极预期使投资者大量投资、消费者广泛消费;消极预期有时会引发大规模的灾难,尤其是对资本市场投资有极大的危害。

Expectation is a kind of economic man＇ s ex-post estimation to economic variables in the future direction and to the future degree. There are good and bad expectations in quality. Expectation is different from daily economic activities and also from general psychological behaviors. Expectation has many features, such as subjective quality, dynamic characteristic, and effectualness for a given period of time, etc. Expectation has its effect on economic motion like a two-edge sword. Active expectation can make investors go in for a great many investments, and it can make consumers go in for a good many consumptions. Passive expectation can induce catastrophe, the investments in capital market in particular.