APACHEⅡ评分在百草枯中毒中的运用及回归模型建立

Research on acute physiology and chronic health evaluationⅡ and establishment of a regression model in paraquat poisoning

目的 应用急性生理学及慢性健康状况评分（APACHEⅡ）评估百草枯农药中毒患者的病情危重程度并判断其预后，以证明其应用的有效性。方法 连续观察入EICU百草枯农药中毒资料完整患者66例，分别计算各自APACHEⅡ评分，并进行验证，建立回归模型。结果 66例患者APACHEⅡ评分2～35分，平均（11．60±9．24）分。38例生存者APACHEⅡ评分（5．58±3．02）分，28例死亡者APACHEⅡ评分（19．79±8．52）分，两者差异有统计学意义（t=-6．74，P〈0．01）。进行Logistic回归分析后得到死亡风险模型。结论 APACHEⅡ评分系统可应用于百草枯农药中毒患者危重程度及预后的评估。

Objective Use acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ （APACHE Ⅱ ） to assess the degree of the illness and the prognosis of the paraquat poisoning patients. Methods 66 patients with paraquat poisoning in EICU were enrolled. After APACHE Ⅱ score was calculated, the prognostic value of this system was assessed, then analysis the relationship between mortality and APACHEⅡ , and establish the regression model. Results APACHE Ⅱ scores of these patients were in the range of 2 to 35, average （ 11.6 ± 9.24） , with average score of （5.58 ± 3.02） for 38 survivors and （ 19.79 ± 8.52） for nonsurvivors. The difference between these two groups of patients was significant（ P 〈0.01）. There was a significant correlation between APACHE Ⅱ score and mortality, regression model was established. Conclusion APACHE Ⅱ score system can be used to predict the prognosis of paraquat poisoning patients.