南汇县肝癌高危人群界定的研究

THE STUDY OF HIGH-RISK INDIVIDUALS OF PRIMARY LIVER CANCER IN NANHUI COUNTY

在南汇县原发性肝癌危险因素定群研究的基础上，以累积发病概率P=[1＋exp（8．8440－0．9321*性别-0．0446*年龄-0．0380*肝炎暴露时间-0．1220·小河水饮用时间）]-1=0．004作为肝癌病、低危人群的划分点时，该高危人群的肝癌发病率为137.53／10万，约为自然人群的3．17倍，肝癌发病数占整个自然人群肝癌发病数的71．3％．其中女性肝癌病人占20．8％，筛出每例肝癌的平均费用约4．700无，证明是费用低而效果好的肝癌高危人群确定方法．

Accumulated morbidity was used to identify the high-risk individuals of PLC on the ba-sis of the cohort study of risk factors of PLC in Nanhui County. Supposed that the cut-off point of accumulated morbidity were 0.004 and the Logistic formu-la was equal to P=1+exp (8.8440- 0.9321*SEX-0.0446*AGE-0.0380* HVT- 0.1220* DRW)-1. If we used above formula to compare with Nanhui population, the PLC morbidi-ty in the high-risk group would be 137.53 per hundred thousand, which was 3.17 times asthat in natural population.The sensitivity of this model was 71.3 percent and the average screening cost of PLC patients was about 4700 RMB per case, which was lower than that of screening in natural population.It was clear that screening in the high risk population identi-fied by above method was more cost effective than screening in natural population.