中国产业结构变动的能源消费影响——基于灰色关联理论和面板数据计量分析

IMPACT OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION ON INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE ALTERATION IN CHINA——BASED ON GREY RELEVANCY THEORY AND PANEL-DATA MODEL

本文在利用经济增长的产业分解模型分析对经济增长贡献的基础上,以中国近20年来的数据为样本,采用灰色关联分析法分析产业结构和能源消费的关联效应,并利用面板数据计量模型进一步分析1995年以来产业内部各行业的能源消费特征,总结出:第二产业对能源消费总量的影响最大,灰关联度高达0.905,产业结构地位不断提升,对GDP增长的贡献稳步上升,中国经济的增长主要依靠能源高消耗的第二产业来拉动;一、三产业和能源消费的关联性也较高,但一产的经济贡献呈下降趋势,三产稳步不前,对经济增长的贡献有限;在产业内部,工业是能源消费能力最强的行业,行业影响因子最高。

Based on analyzing the contribution to the GDP interest rate of industry, with decomposition model of economic growth, this paper uses grey relevancy theory to analyze the relationship between industrial structure and energy consumption in recent 20 years, and further analyze the energy consumption of each department within industry since 1995 in terms of panel - data model. The authors summarize that secondary industry of which grey relevancy degree is up to 0.905 has the most correlation with the energy consumption and it consumes the most of energy, but contribution to the GDP interest rate of the secondary industry has always only about 50% ; grey relevancy degree of Primary and the one of tertiary industry are also high but contribution to GDP interest rate are both very limited. Otherwise industry department in the Secondary Industry has the strongest energy consumption ability; its industrial factor coefficient is up to 76 820. 07, much bigger than that of other departments, industrial factor coefficient of transport, post and telecommunication services department within the tertiary industry is in second rank.