全球变暖影响下中国自然灾害的发展趋势

THE POSSIBLE TENDENCIES OF NATURAL DISASTERS UNDER THE IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING IN CHINA

在本世纪全球与中国显著变暖和中国境内降水量有所减少影响下，结合经济发展过程中生态系统的恶化，５０年代至９０年代初，中国多种自然灾害包括旱灾、洪涝灾、风暴潮灾、农林生物灾害都在发展加剧，唯寒冻冰雪灾害有所减轻。自然灾害所造成经济损失８０年代已比６０年代成倍增长，９０年代逐步损失达１０００亿元至２０００亿元。下世纪气候进一步变暖，如北方降水少量增加不抵蒸发量的上扬，旱灾仍将继续发展。南方雨量增加特别是暴雨和台风雨的增加，会使洪涝灾害扩大加剧。沿海地区由于海平面上升，海岸带灾害主要是风暴潮存在加剧趋势。农林病虫害也将发展，唯寒冻灾害可大幅度减轻。

During the 1950′s to the beginning of the 1990′s,various natural disasters,including drought,folld and waterlogging,storm surge and agricultural disease and insect pests,have been exacerbating,only the disasters of low temperature,snow and ice have been lightly mitigating,under the impacts of obvious temperature rising in the world and China,as well as precipitation decreasing and worsening ecological environment in the process of socio economic development in China;the economic losses induced by natural disasters in the 1980′s were double over that of the 1950′s,annual losses of the beginning four years of the 1990′s reached 100-200 billion RMB yuan. The possible tendencies of various natural disaster above mentioned in China along the further climatic warming in the 21st century will be that,drought disaster in the northern part area and flood disaster in the southern part one of China will all exacerbate due to the possible increase of precipitation less than that of evapotranspiration in the northern China and runoff increasing,especially the increase of rainstorm and typhoon rain in the south respectively;coastal hazards (mainly is storm surge),as well as agricultural disease and insect pests will also aggravate,meanwhile,the disasaters of low temperature,snow and ice may continuously lighten.