河南省春季气候变化及其对小麦产量构成要素的影响

Spring Climate Change and Its Impact on Wheat Yield Components in Henan Province

目前有关气候变化及其对农作物产量影响的研究较多,而对产量构成要素的影响研究相对较少。本文利用自然正交函数(EOF)分解、相关分析、趋势倾向率分析等方法对河南省近30多年的气候和近20多年的小麦产量构成三要素———穗数、粒数、粒重进行了时空变化特征分析,在此基础上分析了春季气候变化对小麦产量及其构成要素的影响。结果表明:全省春季平均气温、降水量、日照时数变化具有比较好的空间一致性,平均气温呈比较明显的上升趋势,降水呈不太明显的下降趋势,日照呈一定的下降趋势;小麦粒重和产量变化具有较好的空间一致性,而穗数、粒数则具有反位相空间变化特征,穗数、粒重及产量均呈明显的上升趋势,粒数呈抛物线变化趋势,其中1991年后呈明显上升趋势;平均气温的升温变化趋势有利于小麦粒重、穗数和最终产量的提高,但不利于粒数增加;降水变化趋势不利于粒重提高,对其他产量构成要素影响不明显;日照的变化对产量及各构成要素影响不明显。

The research on climate change and its impact on crop yield is more, while the impact on crop yield components is less. In this paper, in terms of EOF, correlation and tendency analysis methods, the time and space variation characters of the last 30yr or more climate and the three main wheat yield factors including ears,grains, weight wheat yield data in the last 20yr or more in Henan were analyzed. Based on it, that the spring climate change and its effect on wheat yield and forming factors were also explored. The results show that spring mean temperature, rainfall and sunlight changes have better spatial consistency. Mean temperature has a remarkable rising tendency, rainfall is less decreasing one, sunlight is falling. Both wheat grain weight and yield have a better spatial agreement, but both ears and grains have anti - phrase spatial character. Ears,weight and yield are distinct increasing. Grains is parabolic variation which is especially highly up after 1991. The increasing mean temperature change is benefit to the improvement on weight,ears and ultimate yield but bad for ears. Rainfall is not benefit to weight raising with others factors unclear, sunlight is not obvious for wheat output and its elements.