东山县6月暴雨客观预报模型

The Rainstorm Objective Forecast Model in June over Dongshan

采用文献[1]提出的客观预报技术研制模式，以1990～1999年的42个探空站的常规3层高度资料为依据，研制了本站6月暴雨客观预报模型，并对2000～2005年的实时资料进行了验证，结果表明，暴雨客观预报模型与主观预报准确率相当，且无漏报（主观预报则有一次漏报）。

Using the development model of objective forecast brought forward by literature [1], basing on the altitude data during 1990～1999 from 42 radiosonde stations, We develop the objective forecast model in June of our station, and verify the real time data from 2000 to 2005, the results indicate that the nicety ratio of the rainstorm objective forecast model corresponds to the subjective forecast＇s, and has no the circs which fails to report （but subjective forecast has once）.