煤炭工业可持续发展的系统动力学模型

Dynamic model of sustainable development of coal industry based on system dynamics

针对资源和环境是影响煤炭工业可持续发展的主要问题,运用系统动力学原理,阐明了煤炭工业可持续发展的因果关系;建立了煤炭工业可持续发展的系统动力学模型,指出资源承载力和环境承载力是制约煤炭工业可持续发展的最主要因素。并用Vensim软件对我国煤炭资源的开采年限进行了模拟,分析了模拟结果。

Resource and environment are the main factors affecting the development of coal industry. The logic causality of coal industry＇s sustainable development is analyzed and interpreted , and a system dynamics model of coal industry＇ s sustainable development is builded up by using principle of system dynamics. The sustaining ability of resource and environment are most main factors restricting coal industry＇s sustainable development. At last, the life cycle of coal resource is simulated and the simulation result is analyzed.