通辽市未来25年人口预测与分析

Forecasting analysis on population in the future 25 years in Tongliao city

根据第5次内蒙古人口普查资料,运用人口系统工程与控制论的方法,预测分析通辽市未来25年的人口发展状况.结果表明,未来25年内通辽市人口规模呈现先升后降趋势;老年人口呈快速递增态势,负担系数越来越重;少儿人数持续下降,劳动年龄人口呈现逐年老化趋势.针对通辽市的人口形势提出人口控制方案,为通辽市的人口规划、计划生育及未来的社会经济发展战略提供相关的数据依据.

With the method of the population system engineering and the control theory,based on the 5th Inner Mongolia in census data,the development of population in the future 25 years in Tongliao city is forecasted and analyzed. According to the population situation,a population control project is put forward, so as to provide the data on the census taking in behavior programming, planned parenthood and the future social economy development strategy plan for Tongliao government.