改变我国经常项目顺差现状的均衡条件及政策选择

Equilibrium Condition and Development Policy Selecting of Changing the Current Account Surplus of China

我国较长时间较大数额的双顺差,不利于经济持续、快速、健康发展,同时也引起了严重的贸易摩擦。笔者拟将经常项目与国外净资产联系起来,研究处于经常项目顺差地位的国家实现国际收支平衡甚至逆差的条件,并结合我国实际情况进行实证分析:我国目前的经济发展状况能否自动实现国际收支的均衡和逆转。我国目前的高速经济增长存在着对国外经济的“反哺”,而且这种“反哺”的程度可能是惊人的。进而研究与之相适应的我国经济发展的政策选择。

The current account surplus of China does harm to the continuous, rapid, healthy and harmonious development of our national economy and gives rise to serious trade friction. This paper builds a relationship between the current account and the net assets overseas, learns that how the current account surplus country to become a deficit country. Using our country＇s condition to test whether our country become a deficit country by itself. The writer finds that China has not obtained matched expert benefits and the developed country has won a lot of trade benefits. The degree may be serious. Whafs more, put forward some advices to deal with the problem.