基于层次分析法和选择消去法Ⅲ的配电网规划辅助决策方法

An Approach Based on AHP/ELECTRE Ⅲ for Decision-aid in Power Distribution System Planning

结合层次分析法(AHP)和选择消去法Ⅲ(ELECTRE Ⅲ) 的优点,提出一种基于AHP／ELECTRE Ⅲ的配电网规划辅助决策方法。方法通过AHP确定准则权重,通过ELECTRE Ⅲ法中反映决策者风险态度的阈值表达不确定性,用和谐性指数和不和谐性指数从两个方面表达方案的优劣,然后综合计算赋值级别高于关系,最后提出用“净优势分值法”进行方案排序。进一步通过灵敏度分析证明了该方法的有效性。该方法思路清晰,每一步均接近人的实际决策思维或为人们所熟悉,因而易于为决策者理解和接受。该方法符合配电网规划的柔性要求,是一种实用和可行的配电网规划综合决策方法。

Incorporating the advantages of analytic hierarchy process（AHP） and ELECTRE Ⅲ, this paper proposes an approach based on AHP/ELECTRE Ⅲ for decision-aid in power distribution system planning. The approach assesses the weight to criteria by AHP and includes uncertainty of the data by thresholds reflecting decision maker（DM）＇s risk attitudes, also expressing both sides of alternative with the index of concordance and discordance, then integrating the index of concordance and discordane into the degree of outranking, finally obtaining the final ranking of the alternatives using a proposed ＂net＂ procedure. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis proves the method＇s validity. Since the approach is sensible and straightforward, which is easy to be understood and accepted by DM. It is summarized that the approach meets the requirement of flexible planning and is a practical and feasible solution in power distribution system planning.