城市生活用水量的非线性动力学

Nonlinear Dynamics of Urban Domestic Water Consumption

根据Logistic方程建立了城市生活用水量的非线性动力学方程．研究了方程的2个稳定的不动点及其轨线图．通过分析发现系统演化过程中生活用水量优先趋向于其中的小者．在算例分析中,将动力学方法与多元线性回归方法进行了对比,结果表明,动力学方法具有更好的预测精度．分析验证的结果证明了城市生活用水系统演化过程中生活用水量优先趋向于2个不动点中小者的结论,该动力学方程能够很好地描述城市生活用水量的动力学演化规律．

According to the Logistic Equation and the derivation of Twort＇s empirical formula, a nonlinear dynamic equation is presented. The two equilibrium points and path graphs of the dynamic equation are also analyzed. The analysis shows that the dynamic equation tends to the smaller equilibrium point ,which is proved by a case study. The results of the case study indicate that the precision of the dynamic equation is better than that of the multiple linear regression method. The dynamic equation can express the evolutive law of urban domestic water consumption.