基于GM(1,1)模型的塔里木盆地南缘孤立绿洲降水灾变预测

FORECAST OF RAINFALL CALAMITY IN THE ISOLATED OASIS,SOUTH OF TARIM BASIN BASED ON GM(1,1) MODEL

我们选取了具有一定代表性的塔里木盆地南缘的孤立绿洲民丰县作为研究区，在对散据有效性的验证之后，利用研究区1980-1999年的降水资料，运用灰色系统理论的季节灾变预测方法，对该地区未来年份的降水量进行预测．并建立灰色季节灾变GM（1，1）预测模型，预测未来旱季到来的年份．为预测未来降水趋势提供了信息。结果表明：该研究区下一个旱灾灾变年大致指向2006年至2007年左右。这对合理利用本地气候资源具有实际意义，并且能够为研究干旱区气候变化提供一定的帮助。

Tarim Basin is located in the northwest China. We have chosen Ming Fen county that is the isolated oasis on south of Tarim Basin as the studying area, after verifying the validity of the data, and utilized rainfall data of 1980- 1999 Years, predicted the precipitation of this area by Grey System theory, and by building the GM（1,1） model to predict the year of the next dry season, and have offered information for predicting precipitation. The result shows that this area＇s next dry season would take place from 2006 to 2007. This has actual meanings to local climate resources of rational utilization, and can offer certain help to study arid district climate change.