黑河分水后张掖绿洲“生态-经济”系统风险规避研究

Study on Risk Aversion of Ecology-economy System of Zhangye Oasis After Water Allocation of Heihe River

绿洲“生态-经济”系统具有先天脆弱性和敏感性,水资源任何形式的改变都会给绿洲“生态-经济”系统产生一定的扰动。2000年国家实施的黑河分水,给张掖绿洲农业、地下水循环、生态环境等方面带来一定的风险。作者以风险分析理论为主,提出“循环型经济社会”节水模式、“节水农业+轻工业+枢纽型城镇”发展模式、“水价+水权”水资源管理模式三种模式规避风险,促使“生态-经济”系统达到最大的稳定。

Ecology-economy system of oasis has the characteristics of frangibility and sensitivity, so water resources change influence the ecology-economy system of oasis. Our government has implemented the plan of water allocation of Heihe Rive,and the Zhengyixia will discharge 9.5× 10^8m^3 of water when the mean water inflow of Yingluoxia is 15.8× 10^8m^3. It was imperative to research how to elude the risks that the plan of water allocation of Heihe River would bring to the ecology-economy system of Zhangye oasis. Three models were put forward to elude the risks and to promote the development of ecology-economy system, which were the water-saving model of circular economy, development model of ＂agriculture ＋ light industry ＋ hinge city＂ and managing model of ＂water price＋water right＂.