摘要
为了提高内蒙古农区干旱预测的准确率,本文针对农区干旱的特点,提出了春旱和夏秋旱的标准.并利用数理统计方法,分析得出前冬80cm地温的正负距平区域可预测来年春季干旱的程度;前冬160cm地温距平区域可预测来年夏秋季干旱趋势.同时指出夏季以前开始的ENSO年内蒙古中西部农区春季、夏秋季易出现中～大旱,但夏季以后开始的ENSO年,夏秋季以轻旱～不旱为主;ENSO次年内蒙古农区夏秋季基本是轻旱或不旱年;而在太阳黑子数下降期,内蒙古农区夏秋季也以轻旱或不旱年居多.
In order to enhance probability of drought forecast, based on the drought characteristic, the article defined the standerds of spring and summer-autumn drought in Inner Mongolia agricultural area respectively. On the basis of the mathematics statistics＂ method, the paper points out 80cm＇s depth temperature in last winter can predicate spring drought and 160cm＇s one in same period forecast summer-autumn drought. At the same time, it puts forward ENSO phenomenon makes drought tendency in this year and next year, and sunspot number also forecast drought cases in summer-autumn season.
出处
《干旱区资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第4期92-96,共5页
Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment
基金
社会公益研究专项资金项目(2001DIB20096)
关键词
农区
干旱
预测
方法
agricultural region
drought
forecast
method
