基于灰色系统的动态平差坝体变形预报

The Dam Distortion Forecast Of Dynamic Error-Balancing Based on Gray System

根据运动是趋势性运动与随机性运动的观点,利用灰色系统理论,建立变形监测网随时间变化的GH(1,1)模型和残差改正模型,并把两者结合形成组合模型,利用组合模型对坝体多期变形观测数据进行平差和预报。实践表明,此方法解决了平差与预报统一问题,不仅理论上是严密的,平差和预报精度高,而且便于编程,可以实现计算自动化。

According to the view that movement includes trend and random patterns, we established GH（ 1,1 ） model and residual error correcting model for distortion monitoring net with gray system theory, and developed a combined model by combining the two models. The combined model could be used to balance embankment polyphase deformation observing data. The analysis of embankment polyphase deformation observing data showed that this method solves the promble of union of adjustment and forecast. This method has good theorybasis, high accuracy of adjustment and forecast, and easy to program and realize figure automation.