我国持久性有机污染物卫生杀虫剂使用量与费用预测

Consumption of POPs Pesticides and Its Cost Forecasting in China

目的为我国实施《中国POPs类杀虫剂消减和淘汰战略和规划》提供参考依据。方法应用多元线性回归预测我国持久性有机污染物(POPs)卫生杀虫剂使用量与费用。结果3种主要POPs卫生杀虫剂的使用量及费用估计:三氯杀螨醇年均使用量为57 976 kg,费用为637 736元;五氯酚钠年均使用量为455 738 kg,费用为3222 068元;DDT年均使用量为463 804 kg,费用为3 942 516元。结论我国POPs类卫生杀虫剂的流通和使用存在大量的问题,本研究为合理选择POPs卫生杀虫剂类替代品提供了参考依据。

Objective To provide evidences for implementing Strategy and Plan about Reduction and Elimination of POPs pesticides in China. Methods The forecast of consumption and cost of POPs sanitary pesticides were presented using multiple linear regression analysis in China.Results Estimations of consumption and cost d three main POPs sanitary pesticides ： yearly average eomumption of Dieofol was 57,976 kg and cost was 637,736RMB, yearly average eonstmlption and cost of Pentachlorphen Sodium were 455,738 kg and 3,222,068RMB, and consumption and cost of DDT were 463,804 kg and 3,942,516RMB. Conclusion There are lots of problems in distribution and use of POPs sanitary pesticides in China, and this study provides evidences for choosing succedeneum of POPs sanitary pesticides .