随机需求条件下道路网行程质量评估——行程时间可靠性

Evaluation on the Travel Trait of Road Network under Day-to-day Stochastic Demand ——Travel Time Reliability

考虑日常OD需求变化,提出了随机需求条件下获取道路网路径行程时间概率分布的新方法。用行程时间可靠性描述道路网运行的质量的指标,针对其偏态分布特点,利用Johnson、Gauss曲线拟合行程时间的分布。通过小样本来估计分布的数字特征,并通过与蒙特卡罗法计算结果对比,验证结果的一致性。利用拟合的分布控制行程时间的中心线、上下限,从而对行程时间的可接受极限值进行界定,对道路网行程质量进行控制。

A method to acquire travel time distribution of road network paper cousidering day-to-day stochastic demand. Travel time reliability is proposed in this is used to describe the travel trait of road network and its distribution can be fitted by Johnson and Gauss curve according to its dissymmetry character. Mathematical characteristics of the curve are obtained through small samples, and curve fitting is validated by the consistency of curve fitting＇ s results from the Monte Carlo simulation. The range of acceptable travel time can be obtained through the center, upper and lower bounds controlled by fitting distribution in quality control.