故障树近似计算中最优权因子的选取

Choice of the Best Parameter in Fault Tree Analysis Approximate Computation

在故障树近似计算时,探讨通过加权提高计算准确度的简便方法。根据底事件发生概率的不同,利用VisualC++语言进行蒙特卡罗仿真计算,得到了在近似计算故障树顶事件发生概率时,在不同底事件发生概率对应区间内的最优权因子。利用该方法得到的最优权因子可以提高故障树近似计算的准确度,尤其是在当底事件发生概率较大时,其效果更为明显,可较好地满足采用故障树对某些特殊设备进行顶事件发生概率计算时提高计算精度的需求。

This paper discusses the simple method of heightening exactitude in the case of Fault Tree approximate computation by adding parameter. According to different occurrence probability of bottom event, take advantage of Visual C＋＋ program and Monte Carlo simulation and we can get the best parameter of top event occurrence probability in Fault Tree approximate computation of different bottom events occurrence probability range. The parameter, especially at the high occurrence probability of bottom event, can obviously heighten exactitude in Fault Tree approximate computation. So the parameter will preferably meet the need of special equipments in Fault Tree approximate computation.