澳门噪音污染损害价值的条件估值研究

Evaluation of the Loses of Noise Pollution in Macao with Contingent Valuation Method

条件价值评估法(ContingentValuation Method,CVM)是评估环境污染的经济损失价值的有效方法之一。在CVM研究方法发展的同时,应用范围亦不断扩大。本次调查通过询问人们对环境质量改善的支付意愿(W illingness To Pay,WTP)或忍受环境损失的受偿意愿(W illingness To Ac-cept,WTA),探求澳门噪音污染的损害程度,为政府部门提供决策依据。试验以等距离随机抽样法访问了1 920人,回收样本956个。本研究对研究方法作了一些新的尝试:①对调查的误差进行了统计学分析;②在假设受访者是诚实和有信用的前提下,问卷采用双向投标卡博弈的问卷设计,对受访者同时进行WTA和WTP之引导试验,减少分开调查时可能出现的策略性偏差;③对影响噪音污染意愿调查结果的9项因素进行了统计学分析,给出了回归方程。研究结果显示,被访者的月收入、家庭规模和对噪音的关注程度影响其支付意愿和受偿意愿。2003年澳门噪音污染的年经济损失(以WTP方法试验的结果,得到澳门噪音污染的最小损害)为5.32亿MOP/a(MOP为澳门元,1美元=8.033MOP);以WTA方法试验的结果,得到澳门噪音污染的最大损害为10.6亿MOP/a;如果取CVM之中值,估算出澳门噪音污染的年损害值为7.98亿MOP/a。还对WTP与WTA之间的差异原因进行了讨论。

The contingent valuation method （CVM） is a simple, flexible non-market valuation method that is widely used in cost benefit analysis and environmental impact assessment. However, this method is subject to severe criticism. The criticism revolves mainly around two aspects, namely, the validity and the reliability of the results, and the effects of various biases and errors. The research used two-way bidding gaming methods by asking residents questions about the noise pollution through telephone, and by analyzing the residents＇ willingness to pay （WTP） and willingness to accept （WTA） to imitate market process. The returned 956 effective samples out of total 1920 surveyed samples were calculated with SPSS to estimate the value losses of the noise pollution in Macao. The result indicated that the residents＇ WTP and WTA for noise pollution was about 128.98 MOP （The currency money in Macao, 1 USD = 8. 033 MOP） , 257.78 MOP per capita per month for every adult, and the total economic losses of the noise pollution was between 773.7 ～ 825.7 million MOP per year. It was clear that there existed a disparity between WTP and WTA and this disparity was influenced by many different factors such as income effect, substitution effect, transaction costs, and broad based preferences. According to literature, the disparity between WTP and WTA for a same commodity ranges from a low of 2.4 times to a maximum of 61 times. In our research, the disparity was only 2 times. Our research designed to ask the same individual WTA and WTP was an accepted good idea to reduce the bias. The noise pollution was a serious environmental problem in Macao. Some factors would bear significant influence on WTP and WTA values, which were income, person numbers of the family and the interest to noise pollution. Some shortcomings and advantages in the application of CVM were discussed at the end of the paper.