西北太平洋热带气旋和台风活动若干气候问题的研究

Research on Climatological Problems of Tropical Cyclone and Typhoon Activity in Western North Pacific

热带气旋和台风是严重的突发性自然灾害之一。近20年来,对热带气旋和台风活动的气候学研究成为台风领域的一个重要研究方向,并取得了显著的研究进展。通过对西北太平洋热带气旋和台风活动的季节、年际和年代际时间尺度变化的研究回顾,揭示了造成热带气旋和台风活动不同时间尺度变化的主要影响机制,其中包括低频振荡、季风槽和西传赤道波动、ENSO和QBO现象等,这些系统主要通过改变西北太平洋上空的环流,而影响到西北太平洋热带气旋活动以及登陆我国台风的不同时间尺度变化。还在西北太平洋海域热带气旋和台风活动的气候学研究进展和作者最新的研究成果的基础上,展望了该领域的研究前景,并提出当前此研究领域中一些亟需研究的科学问题,主要包括了季风槽区能量交换、不同海域动力过程、赤道波动演变,以及热带气旋的季节和更长时间尺度的预测。

Tropical Cyclone （TC） and typhoon is one of the severe and abrupt natural disasters. In recent 20 years, the research on TC and typhoon climatology has become one significant aspect of TC field and made great progress. Reviewing the previous studies of the TC variation on time scales longer than season, this paper presents major mechanisms which modify the variation of TC and typhoon activity in the western North Pacific （WNP）. These mechanisms involve low frequency oscillation, monsoon trough and west-propagating equatorial waves, ENSO and QBO, which alter the circulation feature and thermal structure in WNP. Based on the latest research progress and author＇s study results on TC and typhoon climatology, the prospect in this field and some further consideration of the scientific problems, including energy exchange in monsoon trough, dynamics processes in difference area, e- volution of equtorial waves and TC prediction on time scales longer than season are proposed.