摘要
China is experienciug from serious water issues. There are many differences among the Nine Major Rivers basins of China in the construction of dikes, reservoirs, floodgates, flood discharge projects, flood diversion projects, water ecological constructions, water conservancy management, etc. The shadow prices of water resources for Nine Major Rivers can provide suggestions to the Chinese goverument. This article develops a dynamic shadow prices approach based on a multipeziod input-output optimizing model. Unlike previous approaches, the new model is based on the dynamic computable general equilibrium （DCGE） model to solve the problem of marginal long-term prices of water resources. First, definitions and algorithms of DCGE are elaborated. Second, the results of shadow prices of water resources for Nine Major Rivers in 1949-2050 in China using the National Water Conservancy input-holdiug-out in table for Nine Major Rivers in 1999 are listed. A conclusion of this article is that the shadow prices of water resources for Nine Major Rivers are largely based on the extent of scarcity. Selling prices of water resources should be revised via the usage of parameters representing shadow prices.
基金
National Nature Science Foundation of China(No.70472074.No.70131002.and No.60474063)
China Postdoctoral Science Foundation.
