一季度中卡市场分析及后市展望

Market Analysis of Medium Truck Market in the First Quarter and Future Prospects

近几年来，本届中央政府提出要建设“节约型”社会，倡导“科学发展观”，在这一理念指引下，投资将不再是拉动经济增长的主要方式，消费和出口对经济增长的贡献将会越来越大。今年3月“两会”召开，政府再次明确提出，要调整投资和消费的比例关系，“扩大内需”将是今后支撑经济发展的重点。在这种形势下，继05年商用车市场增速的大幅下降，今年一季度投资的回落再次导致商用车市场增速的回落，而中重卡市场更是再次出现了较大幅度的负增长，尤其是中卡市场增速大幅下降18.07％。是何原因导致一季度中卡市场如此低迷，后三季度中卡市场将会怎样发展呢？

After the dramatic slowdown of the increase of commercial vehicle market in 2005, the investment turnaround in the first quarter causes the further slowdown of the market up to 18.07%. What is the reason for the down market, and what about the future three quarters? The author estimates that the market will rebound slowly and the annual sales will be more or less the same as the year 2005. The decrease in sales would not exceed 8%, and the ratio of the whole vehicle and the chassis will continue to increase. The middle and the west market is hot in the competition for every company.