朱■（Nipponianippon）种群生存力分析

Population viability analysis for the Crested Ibis (Nipponia nippon)

到目前为止，只有一个野生朱群体幸存下来，而且它的种群大小自１９８１年重新发现以来，一直在２０只以下波动。本文应用种群生存力分析的方法，借助漩涡模型，根据朱１４年的种群数据，总结和预测了其种群动态，并着重研究了朱的濒危程度。结果显示，按过去１０余年的生存状况，朱在５０年内绝灭的可能性是９８．５％，平均绝灭时间为１５．７２年。现存种群数量很低，所以种群统计随机性对其命运有很大影响。灵敏度分析表明，当前的朱种群对意外死亡和生存环境的波动较为敏感。

Only one wild population of the Crested Ibis (Nipponia nippon) survives by now, and its size has been no more than twenty since being rediscovered in 1981. We put forward the population dynamics and endangered level by Population Viability Analysis (PVA) with the help of a computer simulation model VORTEX model on the basis of the data from 14 year long monitoring. The result indicated with probability of 98.5 % that the Crested Ibis would be extinct 50 years later. The mean extinction time is 15.72 years. The population is so small that the fate of this species is strongly influenced by demography stochasticity. Sensitive analysis showed that the survival probability was sensitive to catastrophes and environmental variations.Consequently, the prior conservation project is controlling hunting and predating, as well as artificial intervention on behalf of the birds to improve the survival rate.