城郊景观动态模型研究──以沈阳市东陵区为例

Dynamic models of suburban landscape:a case study on Donling District of Shenyang.

基于渗透理论、马尔柯夫过程理论，采用中性模型方法，建立了３个不同的城郊景观动态模型，模型中分别介入不同自然因子和决策因子．利用模型对研究区景观进行了动态变化模拟．对模拟结果进行了评价，评价方法与指标包括：１）多分辨率拟合分析；２）最近邻概率；３）斑块大小和数目．结果发现，综合介入决策因素和自然因子的模型具有最好的效果．

Based on the percolation theory and Markov process theory,and by the means of neutral model method,three suburban landscape dynamic models are established,which involve different physical and decision factors in Donling District of Shenyang.The simulated landscapes are compared with the practical ones,and the indices for evaluation include 1)multiple resolution goodness of fit method:2)number and mean size of patches,and 3)nearest neighbor probability.As the result of evaluation,the model integrating bothphysical and decision factors has the best effect.