社会转型风险的衡量方法与经验研究(1993～2004年)

A Study of the Measurement Methods and Experiences Concerningthe Risks from Social Transition (1993～2004)

中国在经历迅速的转型与发展的同时,也正步入一个高风险时代。本文从简要评述人类社会风险的历时变迁入手,从社会紧张、社会脆弱和社会不安全3个维度界定中国正在经历的“社会转型风险”,构建了衡量社会转型风险的指标体系,并利用层次分析法(AHP)确定各类指标的权重,基于统计年鉴和相关文献提供的数据,具体计算了1993～2004年间的社会转型风险指数,发现这期间社会风险的平均增长速度快于经济增长,尤以社会不安全指数的增长最快,但近年来增速呈现下降趋势,在未来几年可能在高位进入“平台期”。最后,作者结合转型期中国社会的一些新特点,从5个方面简要讨论了中国在转型期社会风险快速增长的发生机制。

While at a period of rapid transition and development,China is entering into an era of great risks. Starting with the description and appraisal of historical transformations social risks,in this paper,we have,from the aspects of social uneasiness,weakness and insecurity,defined 'the social-transition-type risks' being experienced by China; constructed an indicator system to gauge social transition risks; by the method of AHP,determined the weight of various indicators; on the foundation of the data provided by annual abstracts of statistics and related literature,concretely worked out the indexes of social transition risks in the period of 1993 to 2004; and found that,in this period,the average growth speed of social risks is greater than that of economic growth,that,in particular,the indicator of insecurity has grown the rapidest,that its growth rate has,however,tended downwards in recent years,and that,in a few years to come,perhaps it will enter into “a period of high but even platform”. Finally,from five aspects,we have,in combination with some new social features of China in transition,briefly discussed the system originating the speedy escalation of social risks in China in the period of transformation.