1951年以来奥地利人口变化的空间特征

Spatial Aspects of Population Change in Austria from 1951 to 2001

根据1951-2001年奥地利人口调查统计数据,分析了近50年来奥地利人口变化的时空间规律,以及人口变化中的增长区和下降区的区域配置等特征,并建立人口变化模式。研究表明:20世纪后半叶奥地利经历了其他欧盟国所表现出的城市化、城市郊区化和人口老龄化的各个过程。特别是城市老龄化表现更为突出,据预测推算,到2035年奥地利将会有1/3的人口超过60岁。在分析过程中,不仅应用了行政区划的区域方法,而且也依据土地利用的经济性质,在“土地经济生产小区”的基底上,对人口的变化规律进行了更为深入的透视。研究结果显示:奥地利西部阿尔卑斯山地中的城市区域人口增长幅度最大。沿着捷克和斯洛伐克边界伸展的北部和东北部区域是最严重的人口缺失地区。而奥地利阿尔卑斯山地东部的一些早期产业都市及其郊区,乃至更远一些的南部和东南部的老工业区域,目前由于普遍存在着经济的困境,也直接导致了这些地区人口的下降。但奥地利未来的总人口趋势将持续稳定。

The aim of the present paper is to analyze the main trends of population change and its spatial variations and patterns in Austria within the last 50 years, from the first population census after World War Ⅱ in 1951 to the most recent census in 2001. The 2001 population census will be the last ＇conventionally organized＇ census in a long series of modem Austrian population censuses, which started in 1869. The next Austrian population census to be held in 2011 will be - corresponding to similar trends in a growing number of countries in Western and Northern Europe - primarily register-based. The overall demographic trends in Austria within the second half of the 20th century correspond more or less to the general changes that have taken place in many other industrial nations. Thus Austria shares with the majority of European countries an ever increasing life expectancy, a continuously declining fertility rate, a dramatically increasing proportion of older people （by 2035, every third resident will be over 60 years old） and an ongoing concentration of population in urban areas. Three aspects of population change in Austria are analyzed in this paper： population change in Austria in general during the last five decades and its underlying factors; the contrasting spatial patterns of population change in the Western and Eastern parts of Austria; and finally a more detailed analysis of growth regions and regions with population decline. The main results of this paper are： The Western parts of Austria, especially the larger urban regions within the Western Austrian Alps, have shown the strongest population growth during the last 50 years. The most important factor of population growth in Western Austria has been the positive balance of birth. Fertility rates in Western Austria, however, have been falling continuously during the study period, but are still higher than in most other areas of Austria. As far as the future demographic developments in Austria are concerned, it can be assumed that the trends of the second half of the 20th century will be continuing. In contrast to other European countries like Germany or Italy, however, Austria＇s population will still be growing approximately for the next three decades, although very moderately and only by immigration. Thus the population of Austria is expected to grow from 8.03 million inhabitants in 2001 to approximately 8.43 million by the year 2027. In the long run, however, Austria will be no exception from the European demographic trends： According to Statistics and changing factor analysis, an outlook to the year 2075 shows a decline in the number of population to 7.54 million inhabitants in Austria. Thus, in approximately seven decades, Austria will have about half a million fewer inhabitants than in 2001, a figure that was last recorded in 1980.