经济波动与产业波动(1986—2003)——相关性、特征及推动因素的初步研究

Economic and Industrial Fluctuations(1986-2003): A Preliminary Study of Correlation, Features and Driving Forces

经济波动实际上就是各个产业波动的综合效果。本文拟由产业入手,探讨各产业波动与经济波动的相关性、经济波动过程中各产业波动的特点以及推动经济波动的产业来源。有关研究表明:(1)重工业景气波动主导宏观经济景气波动。(2)各行业波动幅度均大于GDP波动幅度,说明行业间波动相关性各异,存在“风险分散”效应。各产业的经济效益比总产出更易波动。(3)各产业的增加值、总产值与当期经济景气波动的相关性不强,但中长期比较短时段表现出更好的相关性;各产业价格指数、固定资产投资增长率与全国的相应指标之间表现出较强的相关性。(4)冶金工业、建筑材料及其他非金属矿工业、建筑业始终是推动景气波动的主要产业,制造业在最近一个经济周期中开始起作用。

Economic fluctuation is the comprehensive result of the fluctuation of various industries. With industry as a starting point, the paper discusses the correlation between fluctuation in individual industries and economic fluctuation, the features of fluctuation in each industry in the process of economic fluctuation, and industries driving economic fluctuation. It indicates: (1)fluctuation in heavy industries predominates in the macroeconomic cycle. (2)The range of fluctuation in different industries is wider than that of fluctuations in the economy, which means that industrial fluctuation is different and leads to a“risk dispersion”effect. Industrial economic benefit fluctuates more markedly than gross output. (3)Industrial added value and gross output value fluctuations are weakly correlated with economic fluctuation in the corresponding period of time. But the correlation is much stronger in the long term than in the short term. The fluctuations in industrial price indexes and the increment rate of fixed asset investment are all more closely correlated with their corresponding aggregate partners. (4)The metallurgical industry, the building materials and non-metal mineral products industry, and the construction industry are the main ones that give an impetus to the business cycle. Manufacturing industry began to take effect in the most recent business cycle.