房地产市场与国民经济协调发展的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of Harmonious Development Between the Real Estate Industry and the National Economy in Transitional China

本文利用协整分析和H-P滤波,计算了房地产均衡价格水平,以及房地产价格偏离均衡价格的波动状态,得出结论:我国房地产市场价格的偏离只是受部分地区的影响,即存在“局部泡沫”。为了进一步刻画房地产市场与宏观经济之间的互动关系,本文建立了变参数模型和向量自回归模型,结果表明:在近年来两者之间互动关系有一个结构性的变化,由于利率缺乏弹性,通过利率来调控房地产市场,成效不大,但是信贷规模的变化对房地产投资有较大的影响。脉冲响应函数的结果表明:房地产投资的冲击对经济增长具有长期影响,而且对相关行业的拉动作用也比较大。

The emerging real estate industry plays an important role in national economic development. In recent years, the questions of whether there has been over-investment in real estate, whether the real estate market is a bubble and whether it is appropriate to national economic development have remained the focus of government and scholarly research concerns. This paper calculates the real estate equilibrium price and the fluctuation in real estate prices with the co-integration theory and H-P filter, and concludes that real estate price deviation exists in some regions of China. In other words, the bubble is regional. Further, this paper studies the interaction between the real estate market and the economy with a time-varying model and vector auto-regression model, and finds a structural break between the real estate market and the economy as a whole in recent years. The interest rate lacks elasticity, pointing to the ineffectiveness of efforts to adjust the real estate market through interest rates. But changes in credit scale have great influence on investment in real estate. The result of the impulse response function shows that real estate investment has a long-term influence over economic growth and related industries.