用马尔柯夫模型预测马尾松低效林改造恢复过程

PREDICTION OF THE IMPROVEMENT AND RESTORATION PROCESS OF THE DETERIORATED PINUS MASSONIANA FORESTS BY USING MARKOVIAN MODEL

运用马尔柯夫模型对四川盆地马尾松低效林改造恢复过程中林分各层次盖度、多样性指数和灌木层物种组成的变化趋势进行了预测．结果表明：马尔柯夫模型可适用于退化森林生态系统人工恢复重建过程的研究；四川盆地马尾松低效林可以自然恢复，但采用封育补植措施则能加快恢复进程．对马尔柯夫模型及预测结果进行了讨论．

The Markovian model was applied to predict the changes of coverage and species diversity at each stratum (tree,shrub and herb, resistively)of the detsriorated Pinus massoniana forests under improvement and also the changes of speific composition of the shrub stratum in the forests in Sichuan Basin. The results indicated that the Markovian model could be applied to study the artificial restoration and reconstruction of the deteriorated forest ecosystem.In the Sichuan Basin,the deteriorated P. massoniana forests could be naturally regenerated,and the restoration could be speeded up if conservation and replantation were taken. The Markovian model and its prediction results are discussed in this paper.