中国小麦生产的区域比较气候风险研究

Regional comparison climate risk of wheat production in China

以减产率>5.0%界定灾年,分析了中国各省(市、自治区)小麦灾年发生的风险概率、平均减产率和变异系数,及其与全国平均水平相比的区域比较风险度、减产度和变异度。基于以上3个区域灾年减产率的比较指标,得到了区域比较气候风险指标;利用区域比较气候风险对中国小麦生产进行了分区论述,同时得出了小麦总产量损失与播种面积呈显著正相关,与小麦单产只有一般中度相关,而与比较气候风险基本不相关的关系,并指出了区域比较气候风险指标与防灾减灾工作的关系。

Based on the definition of disastrous year by yield reduction rate larger than 5 percent, a analysis of regional distribution of some parameters such as risk probability, average yield reduction rate, variation coefficient and their comparison indexes relative to mean value in the whole country is conducted. With the three comparative indices for yield reduction rate in disastrous years mentioned above, the regional comparison climate risk index is obtained and used to explaination of zoning on wheat production in China. The result shows that total yield loss of wheat has an obvious positive correlation with planting area, has a medium correlation with per unit area yield and has no correlation basiclly with comparative risk. Finally the relationship between regional comparison climate risk index and work on disaster prevetion and reduction is discussed.