基于货币吸收分析与GDP修正数据的未观测货币规模估算:1978-2005

Estimation of the Scale of Non-observed Money in China from 1978 to 2005 Based on Adjusted GDP Data and the Approach of Money Absorption

未观测货币是民间借贷、非正规金融与未观测经济活动吸收或释放的货币量,对中央银行货币政策调控具有一定的影响。掌握未观测货币的规模,能够对宏观经济运行的未观测因素产生的干扰程度做出大致判断,并采取相应的政策,促进经济持续稳定发展。本文基于货币吸收分析方法和最新GDP修正数据,对改革开放28年来中国的未观测货币规模进行估算。与已有研究相比,本文侧重于分解货币吸收的非经济增长因素及其货币规模。实证结果显示,未观测货币总量呈现周期性特征,在经济周期高点,未观测货币释放规模较大,而在此时点前后,吸收规模较大;它的政策意义在于,将未观测货币纳入货币供给统计分析框架体系,可以判断经济运行周期的时点边界,增强货币政策的有效性。

Non-observed Money is the result of activities of private lending and enterprises' informal financing, and nonobserved economy affects the efficiency of macro-regulation to some extent. If the central bank could know the scale of non-observed money and judge its effects to some extent, reasonable monetary policy would be carried out and it is beneficial to stable economic development. In this paper, the author estimates the scale of nonobserved money in China in past 28 years based on the approach of money absorption and adjusted GDP data. This paper focuses on how to distinguish those non-economic growth factors and their absorbed money. The empirical results show that non-observed money has cycle characters and at the flourishing years, non-observed money usually comes into formal economy system in large amount. Before and after these years, the money scale absorbed by non-observed factors is large. The policy recommendation of this research is that the central bank should distinguish the non-observed money in its monetary statistical system, which may help the central bank to forecast the borders of business cycle in time and improve the efficiency of monetary policy.