中国经济增长动力及前景分析

Factor Analysis and Prospects of China's Economic Growth

中国经济在过去26年间持续快速增长,高增长的动力是什么?未来10—20年,能否继续保持这种态势?引起了国内外广泛的关注。本文通过建立中国经济增长的综合因素模型,得出如下基本结论:资本投入增加是中国经济增长最主要的源泉,包括结构升级、人力资本效率提高、制度变迁等在内的技术进步的贡献也较强,劳动投入增加的贡献相对较弱,这与中国劳动力供给相对过剩、劳动边际效率较低有关。未来16年,中国经济仍可望继续保持适度较快增长,但要达到目前的高速度,将面临投资率继续增高,能源约束加大等矛盾。大力转变经济增长方式是解决这一症结的根本途径。

China＇s economy has experienced high rate of growth over last 26 years. What are the main driving forces？ and is it likely to be sustainable in the coming 10--2 years？ This paper gets the following research results by using production model of integrated factors： the growth of capital investment is the key factor of economic growth, moreover, technical progress, including upgrade of economic structure, improvement of human capital efficiency and institutional transition, contribute much as well, contribution from input of labour force is not significant, largely due to the relative labour surplus and lower marginal labour efficiency. In the next 16 years, an appropriate rapid economic growth will be maintained, but the growth will be slowdown gradually because of constrains of energy, land and water supply. Changing the pattern of economic growth will be a basic and necessary solution.