中国电力发展:提高电价和限电的经济影响

Power Sector Development in PRC:Impact of Tariff Increase and Blackout

中国在过去20年中,经济增长和生产过程的现代化使之对电力愈加倚重。2002年以来,电力成为一个重要的经济和政治问题,电力短缺的直接后果是电价提高和限电。本文从提高电价和限电两方面讨论了研究电力短缺的影响的方法,分析了提高电价对不同工业行业和不同地区造成的影响,并使用调查数据就限电对工业的影响进行了量化分析。主要结论是,电力短缺对工业的直接影响远大于电力供给成本。在工业化水平较高、较为发达的省份,电力短缺的影响并不一定更大,因为决定影响程度的因素包括工业构成、对电力的依赖性和可用的替代品。

The PRC＇s production process has been modernized in the last two decades and now heavily depends on electricity. Since the power shortage starting in 2003, the availability and quality of power supply have become a key economic and political issue for the PRC. The direct impact of the current power shortage has been （i） increase in power tariffs, and （ii） the unavailability and poor reliability of power supply. The paper discussed the methodology in studying the impact of power shortage in two areas： tariff increase and lower power quality. The paper analyzed the impact of electricity tariff increase on various industries and provinces and quantified the impact of lower power quality on the industry using survey data. The paper concluded that the direct impact of power shortage on industries was substantial larger than the cost of electricity supply. The paper also concluded that it was not necessarily true that the power shortage had a larger impact in the more developed provinces. The magnitude of impact depended on the industrial mix, level on dependency on electricity, and the available alternatives.