中部地区社会投资与经济增长关系的实证研究——以河南省为例

The Research on the Relation of Social Investment and Economy Growth in the Middle Area of China——A case of Henan province

通过对河南省1982年～2004年的社会投资增长率、经济增长率等时间序列进行O LS分析,发现所有序列存在非时间平稳性。在此基础上,通过对时间序列单位根的检验、协整分析和因果关系检验,发现该区域内社会投资增长率与经济增长率之间虽然存在长期均衡关系,但两者之间的因果关系较弱,不能证明凯恩斯关于乘数理论与加速原理在河南省是成立的,而造成这一现象的原因应与该地区目前投资效率不高、产业关联度较低、生产潜力没有得到完全发挥等因素有关。通过对社会投资占当年G D P的比重变动进行计量分析,得出的主要结论是,社会投资增长主要受自身惯性的影响,而一定程度上脱离了当地经济发展水平,这一问题的产生与该地区通过国有经济实施赶超式地区发展战略有关。本结论将会为中部地区崛起的路径选择提供一个很好的借鉴。

The paper analyses the time series of the growth rate of social investment and economy development from the year 1982 to 2004 by the OLS method. It finds they are not the time-steady series. On the base of the analysis, it tests the unit root and causality of these series. It is stated that the social investment growth and economic growth have a long steady relation, but they have a weak causality relation in the area. So it does not prove that the acceleration principle and multiple affection can establish in Henan province. The problem comes from the lower investment efficiency and the lower connection of all the industries and the failure to make productive potential into full play etc. Finally, it is analyse the variety of the social investment and GDP and conclusion is drawn that the social investment is influenced by its inertia so that it is irrelevant with the economic development. The phenomenon is caused by the catch-up-with development strategy implemented in Henan province. The conclusion helps us choose a more reasonable path to make the middle region of Chinarise.