基于动力学模型的人口与淡水资源问题研究

Study of Human Activities and Freshwater Resources Based on the Dynamic Model

世界淡水资源正面临着空前的危机,研究人口、经济和淡水资源的关系是世界面临的重大课题。从系统动力学出发,建立了人口与淡水资源二元非线性动力模式,并进行了平衡态分析,研究结果表明:(1)淡水资源承载力的提高将使淡水资源总量保持在较低水平上,平衡态人口数量线性增加;在保持淡水资源承载力不变的情况下,将迫使人口总量非线性减少;(2)无节制的灌溉面积扩张、工业盲目发展以及持续加速的水污染,都将导致平衡态淡水资源和人口总量的减少,并对全球淡水生态系统造成无法估量的影响;(3)人口-淡水资源系统的可持续发展,必须建立在淡水资源自我更新与污水资源化比率之和大于水污染水平,且人口增长率保持在低水平的基础之上。这要求人类严格控制人口增长、控制水污染,对有限的水资源加强管理、合理配置、高效利用和有效保护。

The global freshwater resources is facing an unprecedented crisis now, the realationship among the population,economy and freshwater resources is one of the most important issues facing civilization in the 21st century. Based on the system dynamics,a nonlinear dynamic model of the evolvement between human activities and freshwater resources is estublished,the results show： （1） Increase in freshwater carrying capacity will make freshwater amount staying in a lower level and population amount in equilibrium linear increase. （2） Excess irrigated land area, uncontrolled industrial development and continuous accelerated water pollution, all of them, will make the freshwater resources and population amount in equilibrium decreased and exert fathomless influence on the global freshwater ecosystem. （3） The sustainable development of the system between population and freshwater resources must be established on the basis of the ability that the sum of rate of the water resources self-renovation and recycled polluted water larger than the degree of water pollution and that population growth rate staying in a lower level,all of which required that the population and water pollution must be controlled and the water management,the resonable freshwater use must be strengthened effectively.