灰色系统模型在区域水污染负荷量超长期预测中的应用

Application of Grey System Model in Super-long-term Forecasting of Regional Water Pollution Bearing Capability

针对现有一些预测方法的不足，本文运用灰色系统原理，提出了区域水污染负荷量超长期预测的变系数ＧＭ（１，１）模型，同时通过分析各污染源排放量占总排放量的灰比例关系，进一步预测各污染源站点的污染负荷量。实例验证了该方法的可行性及有效性。

In view of the deficiencies of existing forecasting methods,the coefficient changing GM(1,1) model for super-long-term forecast of regional water pollution bearing capability is established by appling the principles of grey system,and furthermore,the pollution bearing capability to each pollution source is estimated through analysis of the grey ratio relations of discharge of each pollution source to total discharge. Practical application shows that the model is applicable and effective.