高拱坝安全监控及安全评价──龙羊峡大坝安全性态评价专家系统

Safety monitoring and evaluation of high arch dam─safety evaluation expert system for Longyangxia Dam

本项研究采用现代安全系统工程的方法，并结合水利水电领域的专业知识和电子计算机技术，建造了以因果关系网络为基础，能进行深层推理的第二代专家系统──龙羊峡大坝安全性态评价专家系统。本系统成功地解决了知识表示、知识获取以及第一代专家系统所不能解决的“组合爆炸”和“搜索爆炸”等关键技术问题；具有很强的知识表示和知识获取功能及问题求解功能；一般不超过２ｍｉｎ即能推理完毕并给出相应的问题结论和处理对策；能对各种工况进行全方位跟踪、预测和防范处理。

In this study, the method of modern safety system engineering, combining with water resources and hydropower professional knowledge and omputer technology has been adopted. The Longyangxia dam safety evaluation ex pert system has been established on the basis of the network of cause and effect relationship, a second-generation expert system which could perform the deep inference. This system successfully solved the key technical problems of knowledge representation and acquisition, combinatorial explosion and search explosion. The latter two items could not be solved by the first generation expert system. It has strong performances of knowledge representation and acquisition and problem-solving. The inference process could be completed in 2 minutes and the corresponding conclusions and treatment measures could be given in this system. The tracking in all directions, forecasting and prevention could be conducted in various operating conditions.