1996年国内油品市场供需形势分析

Analysis on Domestic Supply &. Demand of Oil Products in 1996

据初步统计,今年1～6月份,国内汽油、煤油和柴油的消费量比1995年同期增长10.8％,达到4036万吨。其中柴油消费量达2312万吨,比去年同期增长13.8％。上半年国内油品市场的主要特点是:(1)柴油产需缺口增大,汽油供过于求的状况日渐严重。(2)国际柴油价格持续偏高,致使柴油进口量减少,供应紧张状况加剧;(3)燃料油需求旺盛,产量下降,进口量剧增。预计由于国内市场转旺,今年我国原油和成品油进口量均将超过去年;但鉴于下半年亚洲市场柴油仍可能在中高价位徘徊,价格走势不利于进口,因此,弥补柴油供需缺口的有效办法仍是增产柴油。只有鼓励国内炼油企业增产柴油,才能把握市场的主动权。

According to preliminary statistics, the domestic consumption of gasoline, kerosene, and diesel oil in the first six months of this year reached 40. 36 m tons, 10. 8% more than the same period of last year. Among which, diesel consumption climbed to 23. 12 m tons, 13. 8% higher than that of last year. The characteristics revealed in the domestic oil product market in the first two quarters are ; (1) The gap between diesel production and demand became greater, meanwhile, the situation of supply-over-demand of gasoline was getting even worse: (2) The continuously rising price in the international diesel markets led to deduction of diesel imports to China and even greater shortage of the resource within the Chinese markets. (3) There had been an increase in fuel oil accompanied by drop in productivity and dramatic rise in imports. It is predicted that China's crude and oil product imports will have surpassed the previous year because of the rising demand on domestic markets. However, the price situation will not be favorable to diesel imports due to the fact that prices on Asian markets may possibly fluctuate among medium and high levels in the second half of the year. Therefore, the only solution to fill in the gap of lack between supply and demand is to increase diesel production. And only when refineries in China are encouraged to raise their production can initiatives of markets be grasped.