地方政府违约债务规模及偿债准备金研究——控制和化解地方财政风险的数理经济学视角

Research on Local Uncompensated Liabilities and Liability-compensating Reserve

目前学术界和相关部门对于我国地方财政风险的形成原因、传导机制和潜在危害已进行了大量的分析论证,但对于如何将政府债务规模控制在安全范围之内,防止地方财政风险的不断传导升级,却缺乏专门的研究。通过对地方政府违约债务具体表现形式的探讨,从数理经济学视角提出了测算违约债务规模和合理设置偿债准备金的总体思路,整个机制可以为完善地方政府债务管理体系、保障各级财政安全提供理论依据。

Nowadays, there are so many debates on the issue of local fiscal risk. Many researchers have analyzed the morphogenetic causation, wansition mechanism and latent danger of local fiscal risk. But few people have designed a whole government liability management and control system to prevent the transition and depravation of local fiscal risk. In this paper,we discuss 4 kinds of local government liabilities and provide a new way to estimate the scale of uncompensated liabilities and liability - compensating reserve. The whole system can provide theoretic suggestions on how to manage and control local government liabilities.