我国货币政策传导途径的实证研究——基于1998年以来的实际情况

The Empirical Study on Transmission Channel of Monetary Policy in China——basing on the facts from 1998

从1998年取消国有银行信贷规模限制以来,我国开始进入间接货币调控时期。通过实证研究发现,货币政策的主要传导途径依然是信贷渠道,银行信贷对经济增长和物价稳定发挥着重要作用。货币渠道对物价水平也会产生一定的影响,但影响很小,货币渠道作用的发挥有赖于我国市场化改革的进一步推进和完善。

The monetary pohcy began to enter indirect money adjusting period since 1998,when the credit ceiling was abohshed. By empirical analysis we find that credit channel is still the main transmission channel of monetary policy in China, it has great effect on the economy output and price level. However, to some extent, the monetary channel also has some effect on the price level, and has little effect on economy output. The market reforms should be carried forward more deeply to raise the effectiveness of money channel.