Backcasting情报学发展研究中应用的探讨——情报学未来发展的“场景”及路径选择

Applications of Backcasting Method to Information Science--Studies Scenarios and Path Choice for the Future Development of Information Science

在介绍Backcasting方法的基础上,将这种方法首次应用到具有社会学属性的情报学研究中。按照Backcasting方法的实施步骤,对选定的三个情报学发展“场景”进行分析,预测其在2020年的发展状况,选择出最佳的“场景”方案,提出实现它的路径措施,以实现对未来具体时点情报学发展定位的研究。

Based on the introduction of Backcasting approach, this paper applies this approach into the scenario building of the information science in 2020. According to the execution procedures of Backcasting approach, three scenarios for the development of information science towards 2020 are identified. Summarizing the status quo of the three aspects corresponding to the three scenarios, the paper shows how to choose the most probable scenario. Then some paths and measures for realizing this scenario are proposed.