乌鲁木齐市大气中二氧化硫的灰色预测

Grey forecast of SO_2 in the atmosphere of Urumqi

根据灰色系统理论,联系乌鲁木齐市大气环境的实际状况,建立了精度检验为一级的灰色预测模型,经模型检验其精度完全满足要求。对乌鲁木齐大气中的SO2值进行预测分析的结果表明,乌鲁木齐市大气中SO2值呈上升的趋势,在未来几年中,乌鲁木齐市大气中SO2的预测值超过国家三级标准值(即大气中SO2的质量浓度年均值≤0.10mg/m3),这种发展趋势应引起有关部门的关注。

According to the theory of grey system and the actual situation of the atmospheric environment in Urumqi, a grey forecast model with the first grade of precision was set up and its precision was examined. It was proved that the model completely to satisfy the requirement. The concentration of SO2 in the atmosphere of Urumqi was predicted and analyzed. The results showed that the concentration of SO2 in the atmosphere of Urumqi was rising, and in the future several years, the forecast value of SO2 concentration in the atmosphere of Urumqi will be exceeded class three of the national standard （namely SO2 year average concentration ≤0. 10mg/m^3）. This development tendency should amuse the attention of relative department.