江西省50年耕地变化与社会经济驱动力研究

Cultivated Land Change and Social Economic Driving Forces of Jiangxi Province Over the Past 50 Years

在回顾耕地变化与社会经济驱动力的基础上，基于统计年鉴数据，利用列表分析、主成分回归等定性和定量分析方法，从耕地面积与粮食产量变化两个方面，研究了江西省50年的耕地变化。研究结果表明：江西省耕地面积历经了从上升到下降的五个变化阶段；尽管粮食总产量在稳步上升，由于人口的增加人均产量一直在300～400kg上徘徊。主成分回归的研究结果表明：耕地面积变化的主要社会经济驱动力是经济发展水平、人口增长、交通增展和城市化水平，而粮食产量影响因子较多，需要进一步深入研究。

This paper first reviews the relative studies on cultivated land change and correspondent economic and social driving forces. Then by mean of table analysis, principal component regression and from area and yield perspective, this paper analyzes the cultivated land change of Jiangxi Province over the past 50 years based on the statistical data. The results indicate that the area change tendency from increase to decrease can be separated into 5 stages. Although yield has been rising continuously, the yield per capita swayed between 300 - 400 kg. The principal component regression also shows that the major driving forces for area of cultivated land are economic development , population expansion, development of infrastructure and urbanization. The factors affecting yield are quite various and a deeper and further research is required.